Should I?

The internet's regret-o-meter — an homage to xkcd #458 "Regrets".

Should I ?

Try: kiss her · buy bitcoin · trust him · eat that · quit my job

⬇ download this chart
Wait — should I actually decide things this way? (No.) Here's why ⤵

It's a fun gag, but the bars don't mean what you'd want them to mean. Three reasons:

  1. It measures joint probabilities, not the conditional ones you care about. "I shouldn't have …" results count roughly P(I did it & I regret it), and "I should have …" results count P(I didn't & I regret not doing it). But to actually decide, you want the conditional probabilities — P(regret | I do it) vs P(regret | I don't). The counts are confounded by how often people do the thing in the first place, so they can't be compared directly. Try "run for president": almost nobody does it, so "I shouldn't have run for president" is vanishingly rare — not because running rarely brings regret, but because running is itself rare. The bar reflects the base rate, not the regret.
  2. There's a heavy writing-about-it bias. It's really P(I did it & regret it & wrote about it online). People only post when they're able and willing to — which skews away from outcomes that are too embarrassing to admit, or so bad they took away your ability or desire to write about them at all.
  3. Regret is binary; consequences aren't. A justified decision needs the expected cost, not just the probability of regret. If regret in one direction means "wasted five minutes" and in the other means "lost a leg," counting how often people regret each — without weighing how much — tells you nothing about what to do.
  4. Selection bias: the two groups aren't the same people. Those who did the thing and those who chose not to are different populations, often differing in exactly the traits that drove the choice. So even a clean P(regret | did) vs P(regret | didn't) wouldn't tell you what to do — the regretful "didn't" crowd might have regretted doing it too, and vice versa.
  5. You might not be the average person. Even a perfectly measured number is an average over everyone who wrote about it. Your situation, your values, and your particular "her" can differ enough that the crowd's tendency simply doesn't apply to you.

So: enjoy the chart, then make your own call.